Facebook:
source: Stockcharts.com
Thursday, July 26, 2018
Chart Of The Day - Trend Following In Action
Today just one chart illustrating how "Trend following approach" works:
Facebook:
source: Stockcharts.com
Facebook:
source: Stockcharts.com
Monday, July 23, 2018
Seventh Issue Of Newsletter Has Been Dispatched
The seventh issue of my Newsletter has been just dispatched. Please, check your e-mail boxes and let me know if there is any problem.
Sunday, July 15, 2018
US Stocks - Is It A Healthy Bull Market?
Although NASDAQ is making new historical highs, the market internals do not support these tops. Look at the chart below:
source: Stockcharts.com
The lower panel of the chart shows the amount of stocks establishing new 52-week highs. Note that despite the index making new all-time highs (the blue arrrow on the upper panel of the chart), the amount of stocks doing the same is rapidly going down (the red arrow).
Well, it is not a typical pattern printed by a healthy bull market...
source: Stockcharts.com
The lower panel of the chart shows the amount of stocks establishing new 52-week highs. Note that despite the index making new all-time highs (the blue arrrow on the upper panel of the chart), the amount of stocks doing the same is rapidly going down (the red arrow).
Well, it is not a typical pattern printed by a healthy bull market...
Sunday, July 8, 2018
Are We In A Bear Or Bull Market In Precious Metals?
The gold market looks like being in a typical short-term bear cycle:
The green line indicates that since middle April 2018 the gold has been in a downward trend.
However, this chart says something different:
The chart shows a popular gold market performance measure, the gold / silver ratio. To remind you, during the furious bull markets in precious metals the ratio is going up. And vice versa - during a bear market it goes down. The message delivered by the above picture is quite simple - the precious metals market is in a bull cycle.
And the last chart:
This time the chart shows another popular performance measure, the GDX / gold ratio. Once again, during a typical bull market in precious metals GDX (or gold mining companies) outperform the gold itself. The blue up-trending line evidences that the precious metals market is in its bull cycle.
So the question is: "Are we in a bear or bull market in precious metals?"
The green line indicates that since middle April 2018 the gold has been in a downward trend.
However, this chart says something different:
And the last chart:
This time the chart shows another popular performance measure, the GDX / gold ratio. Once again, during a typical bull market in precious metals GDX (or gold mining companies) outperform the gold itself. The blue up-trending line evidences that the precious metals market is in its bull cycle.
So the question is: "Are we in a bear or bull market in precious metals?"
Thursday, June 14, 2018
Latest Developments On The Precious Metals Market
We live in interesting times. Generally, gold and the US dollar go in the opposite directions but after the latest FED decision both instruments go in tandem:
source: stooq.com
What is more, most recently the silver / gold ratio exploded to the upside but gold still cannot break above an ultra short-term resistance at $1,307 - $1,310 per ounce (the red, dotted line on the lower panel of the chart):
source: Simple Digressions
Finally, JP Morgan is furiously hoarding silver:
source: Simple Digressions
I think there is something big in the making...
source: stooq.com
What is more, most recently the silver / gold ratio exploded to the upside but gold still cannot break above an ultra short-term resistance at $1,307 - $1,310 per ounce (the red, dotted line on the lower panel of the chart):
source: Simple Digressions
Finally, JP Morgan is furiously hoarding silver:
source: Simple Digressions
I think there is something big in the making...
Sixth Issue Of The Simple Digressions Newsletter
The sixth issue of my Newsletter has been just dispatched. Please, check your e-mail boxes and let me know if there is any problem.
Tuesday, May 22, 2018
Gold And Silver - I Am An Optimist
It happened at last. Now there is high or even extreme pessimism among big speculators trading precious metals futures on the COMEX. Look at these two charts:
source: Simple Digressions
and this one
source: Simple Digressions
The chart shows current (as of May 15, 2018) net positions held by money managers (big speculators) in gold and silver futures at the COMEX. Note that these traders are very pessimistic about gold (red circles on the upper panel of the chart) and silver (blue circles on the lower panel).
For example, money managers trading silver futures hold a large, net short position. Interestingly, even at the end of the latest bear market in precious metals (December 2015) these speculators were less pessimistic.
The same pattern is visible on the gold chart - yes, money managers are now less pessimistic than at the end of 2015 but their pessimism is comparable to that visible at the latest bottoms (red circles).
As a result, as a tough contrarian, I am once again optimistic about gold and silver in the short and long-term perspective.
The chart shows current (as of May 15, 2018) net positions held by money managers (big speculators) in gold and silver futures at the COMEX. Note that these traders are very pessimistic about gold (red circles on the upper panel of the chart) and silver (blue circles on the lower panel).
For example, money managers trading silver futures hold a large, net short position. Interestingly, even at the end of the latest bear market in precious metals (December 2015) these speculators were less pessimistic.
The same pattern is visible on the gold chart - yes, money managers are now less pessimistic than at the end of 2015 but their pessimism is comparable to that visible at the latest bottoms (red circles).
As a result, as a tough contrarian, I am once again optimistic about gold and silver in the short and long-term perspective.
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