Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Big money sells two popular tech stocks very aggressively.

Just a quick look at what big money does with Blackberry and Apple stocks:

                                                     Blackberry (BBRY)

                                                         Apple (AAPL)

Thursday, August 22, 2013

S&P 500 - update.

US equity market, although still in an up trend, is showing weakness again. Technical analysis fans could very easily point many charts showing various divergencies indicating that weakness. Well, I will show just a few of them.

First chart shows the S&P 500 index subsequent peaks with less number of new highs. Though index reaches another record highs, every time it happens we can spot less and less new highs. This is a clear sign of weakness. Declining volume is another sign of weakness.

                                                             source: Proste Dywagacje

Another chart.

                                                            source: Proste Dywagacje

This chart is especially crucial. It shows what the big money does. I've presented similar chart quite a few tines here but this time I made a small modification. The blue line shows what is happening during the last hour of daily session. This is time when big investors are active. When the blue line is in a down trend it means that big money is selling. And vice versa. Quick look at the chart and we see that since the middle of May the big money has been selling very intensively.
One remark - that indicator isn't a good timing tool - it just shows the tendency. But I wouldn't rather  like to be on the buying side when big fishes sell....

Next chart - and this is a timing tool.


The chart shows NYSE advance - decline issues and its climaxes. Without boring details - red circles indicate when the market reached the selling climax and the bounce up is expected. Currently we have such a situation. After the latest short term down trend the market is expected to have some sort of a rally.

Well, we'll see. But the big picture is that  the market shows longer term weakness with big investors selling their stocks with full determination. While Wall Street sees only momentum trading the market is loosing that momentum.

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Wheat - fundamentals bullish

Some positive things have appeared most recently in wheat fundamentals. Wheat is a commodity so the most important aspect of investing in it is demand and supply.
Because of increasing demand from China seasonal world demand is forecasted to be bigger than supply. Let's look at the table:

                                                                         source: USDA

Season 2012 / 2013 has set a record - 25.013 thousand metric tons of wheat were on demand side. Then, the forecasts for season 2013 / 2014 were quite opposite - supply was to be bigger than demand. But in July this forecast has changed; due to bigger demand from China, current forecast is again for demand side. What's more - the ending stocks of wheat are forecasted to stand at 90 days of world daily consumption which is quite a small numer.

Now, fundamentally we have the situation ripe for higher wheat prices. So what about the futures market ? Well, here everybody seems to be very busy in selling wheat.


For example, speculators have one of the biggest short positions in many years.

                                                                     source: Proste Dywagacje

So, generally, this seems to be one of the best opportunities to start betting on wheat prices on long side of the market.