Friday, November 30, 2018

Newsletter - Update

The tenth issue of Newsletter has been just dispatched. Please, check your e-mail boxes and let me know if there is any problem.

Thursday, November 8, 2018

Gold Whispers That The US Dollar Is Ahead Of A Leg Down


In my last piece on the US dollar and gold (October 21, 2018) I made the following conclusion:

“It has to be also noted that the excessive optimism among the speculators trading US dollar index futures is accompanied by extreme pessimism among their fellows trading gold futures. As a result, there is an extremely positive mix of sentiment, supporting a bullish thesis on gold and the precious metals market”

Since the publication the gold has not changed its price while the US dollar is up 0.4%. So, generally, both instruments have done nearly nothing. It means that it is a good time to look at the general picture once again. Here it is:




Source: Stockcharts

I think the chart shows quite an interesting pattern:
  • The US dollar is printing a double top formation (the green, horizontal line)
  • The gold is relatively strong, compared to the greenback (two red circles)
Logically, when the US dollar is topping the gold is supposed to test its previous bottom but…it is not the case now. Note that at the latest US dollar top (October 31, 2018) the gold, instead of getting close to the latest bottom at $1,170 - $1,180 per ounce, was standing at $1,215 per ounce.

In other words, the gold is suggesting us that the scenario discussed in my latest articles (bullish for gold and bearish for the US dollar) is still valid.

Monday, November 5, 2018

Newsletter - Update

The ninth issue of Newsletter has been just dispatched. Please, check your e-mail boxes and let me know if there is any problem.