Thursday, September 19, 2013

US markets - an update

Yesterday, after the FED announcement, US markets reacted as usually. Looking at that I have an impression that there is no bad news. There is only good news - never mind what this news is - the market always goes up.
O.K., this is "what is seen" (as French economist Frederic Bastiat used to write) but "what is unseen ?".

Let us look at some charts.

The first chart shows the number of advancing and declining issues:

As in my previous posts we can spot the deterioration of the market internals - the market goes up with less advancing issues.

The chart below shows what smart and big money has been doing for some time:

As one can see - smart and big money does not care what Ben Bernanke has said - the selling goes on.

But, as I wrote some time ago - smart and big money indicators are not a good timing tool. To assess whether it is time to think about shorting the market I use the chart below:

Now the market is in the selling zone - for active investors this could be the opportunity to try to short the market.

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Improving situation in global shipping

Something good for global sea transportation is happening in China. For a few months in a row the imports of iron ore have been growing quite strongly; similar situation is in other sectors as well.
Due to that improvement the rates in bulk shipping are on the rise - this can be seen in the behaviour of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). Yesterday BDI broke out above the resistance line at 1150.

This is a bullish sign for the prices of dry bulk transportation companies (and maybe for some others, e.g. container carriers). The pattern is that BDI goes first and stock prices of dry bulk carriers follow it after some time.

Below is the chart: