Sunday, September 21, 2014

Value Line Makes Me Very Cautious

Value Line Index is not confirming the top printed by S&P 500 and a few other indices. To find parallels, please, look at the charts below:


                                                                        2007

                                                                2014


This is another example of a deterioration in a technical picture of equity markets in the U.S.








Saturday, September 20, 2014

U.S. Stock Market Is Seriously Degenerated

U.S. equities are marching up but there are many signs this market looks not so good. It does not mean this is a good opportunity to short it but it means it is a good opportunity to sell equities. Simply put, the risk is, in my  opinion, too high. A way too high. Just two charts:


I have explained the meaning of SKEW Index in this article. Looking at the chart above we can spot there is a very high risk of a rapid correction.

Well, another thing. Look at the chart below:


Despite Nasdaq100 and S&P500 marching up, we see that less stocks record new highs
But we have seen it before. The most surprising thing is that we see that more and more stocks record new lows while indices are standing at their long-term highs.
The market is driven by less new high issues and more new low issues. It does not look good.














Thursday, September 18, 2014

Navios Maritime Acquisition Behaves Better Than Its Peers

Most recently I have written an article on Navios Maritime Acquisition. This is a shipping company having a quite big fleet of product tankers. These vessels are being used in the transportation of such oil related products as diesel oil, gasoline, jet fuel etc. In my opinion, the operators specializing in this segment of transportation business should benefit from growing U.S. exports of petroleum products.
Below you will find the charts showing the current technical situation of NNA's shares:



Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Gold And Silver Near Their Supports But PM Stocks Look Good

Well, it looks quite strange. Both silver and gold are approaching their supports (silver actually standing at its suport) but the behaviour of Juniors (PM explorers) indicates that the PM market does not look as bad as it appears. Look at the charts:


The blue area indicates that PM miners and explorers are not in a bear market anymore. Either they are not in a bull market. They are just in a consolidation phase with Juniors better than Miners (a yellow area indicates a bear market with Miners better than Juniors).




Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Nasdaq 100 Topping But We See More 52-week Lows Than 52-week Highs

Such a situation had happened only once: in March 2000 when we a historical top at Nasdaq100 was printed. Look at the chart:


What happened then?

We had experienced a very severe bear market in tech stocks.

Now, the history repeats:



Today, Nasdaq 100 is topping and....there are more 52-week lows than 52-week highs. It resembles March 2000, doesn't it?

Saturday, September 6, 2014

European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates But Gold Does Not Fall

The general rule is that gold is negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar. If dollar goes up, gold goes down. And vice versa.
On September 4, the European Central Bank cut interest rates very aggresively. After that the U.S. dollar strengthened by nearly 1% - quite a nice and quick jump. After one day it stays at these high levels.
Shortly after the rates were cut gold dipped around 1%. Till that moment it was as the general rule said. But then...well, it regained nearly everything it lost and at the end of September 5, gold is standing more or less at the level it was standing before the rates were cut. Quite embarrassing, eh? Look at the charts below:




I do not know what will happen next. Gold is not in its upward trend. But it looks like the players want to tell: "Hey, we do not trust currencies, we trust gold".




Saturday, August 30, 2014

This Time Gold Miners Are Going Differently

Generally, when U.S. dollar is rising the shares of gold miners are going down (as gold and silver). But most recently, gold miners has been doing quite well despite U.S. dollar rising (gold has been repeating the old pattern, i.e. going down or stalling with $ going up). Please, look at the chart below:.

The orange areas indicate the rising U.S. dolar environment - at these times PM miners are going down.
But look at the last orange area (starting in March 2014) - PM miners have been going up quite steeply. It looks very bullish for PM miners' stocks..