Tuesday, February 20, 2018

COMEX - JP Morgan Silver Holdings Are Skyrocketing

Here is an updated chart showing JP Morgan COMEX warehouse silver holdings:

source: Simple Digressions

It looks like it is skyrocketing...

By the way, does anybody have any idea what this huge adjustment is about?

Sunday, February 11, 2018

US Stock Market - Expect A Short-Term Move Up

Last week VIX, a fear index, hit extreme readings of around 50 (the red circle on the chart below):

source: Stockcharts.com

In the past such a reading was a clear indication of a short-term bottom in US equities. Simply put, the speculators trading VIX futures changed their attitude into total pessimism but...they were too fast. Look at another chart:

source: Simple Digressions and the COT data

Note that at the end of 2017 the speculators were holding a net SHORT position in VIX futures amounting to 97.2 thousand contracts (in that way strongly betting on higher prices of US equities). Now (February 6, 2018) they held a net LONG position of 85.8 thousand contracts (heavily betting on lower prices of US equities).
Well, in my opinion, the latest change in speculators' attitude was too big and too fast so...I expect a short-term move up soon.

Monday, February 5, 2018

JP Morgan And SLV - What Is Going On?

It looks like JP Morgan is moving its silver from iShares Silver Trust (SLV) to its COMEX warehouse. Look at this table:

data in millions ounces of silver

source: Simple Digressions

Note that since 2017 the changes in SLV holdings match the changes in JP Morgan holdings. This pattern is particularly clear this year - JPM increased its holdings by 7.9 million ounces of silver up-to-date while SLV reported a decrease of 7.7 million.

Last year JP Morgan added 37.3 million ounces to its COMEX warehouse while SLV reported a decrease of 20.7 milion.

Now the question is what it is all about.

By the way, there are 127.3 million ounces of silver at JP Morgan's COMEX warehouse. (as of February 5, 2018). To give you some comparison - the annual silver production is 886 million ounces (2016) so JP Morgan (or its clients) hold around 14.3% of the world's silver production. 

Friday, February 2, 2018

US Dollar - Is It Close To The Bottom?

It looks like we are very close to the end of a bear market in the US dollar. Look at this chart:

source: Simple Digressions and the COT data

The grey bars represent the net positions held by big speculators trading US dollar index futures. Note that the current position held by these traders is SHORT.

However, despite the US dollar index being at its lowest level since January 2015, the net short position is not that large as it was at the end of November 2017 (the green arrow) when the previous bottom in the US dollar index was printed (the red arrow).

In other words, the speculators are not that pessimistic about the greenback as they were in November 2017. In my opinion, it is a common pattern visible during bottoming phases. Hence, expect the US dollar to consolidate or even go higher soon...

Thursday, February 1, 2018

Note To The Subscribers - A New Pick Has Been Added To The Portfolio

The second issue of the Simple Digressions Newsletter has been dispatched. Please, find it enclosed in your e-mail boxes.

By the way - due to the fact that my subscribers are mostly interested in Newsletter (to remind you - in each issue of Newsletter I discuss and report the results delivered by the 2018 Precious Metals Portfolio and present an investment idea), I have decided to offer Newsletter only. The appropriate changes in the payment boxes have been made.

Please, note that I intend to offer my service for many years to come (it is not a one-year service). Hence, the payment boxes offer a subscription.

Sunday, January 28, 2018

Gold At A Pivotal Point

Gold prices are very close to their strong resistance level at $1,350 - $1,380 per ounce:

source: Stockcharts.com

A thesis on a final breakout is supported by the physical demand. For example, the IAU ETF has added a large amount of gold in January up-to-date (465 thousand ounces):

source: Simple Digressions and IAU

On the other hand, the Goldollar index is lagging (the blue arrow) behind gold prices (the green arrow), which is a sign of a short-term correction coming:

source: Simple Digressions

Summarizing - we are at a pivotal point for gold. Although I opt for a short-term correction, I would not be surprised to see a big leg up in gold starting soon...

Saturday, January 13, 2018

Gold And The GolDollar Index

One of my readers has asked me about the Goldollar index. Here are the updated two charts:

Long-term picture

source: Simple Digressions

Note that most recently the Goldollar index has bounced off its long-term trend line and now it is marching higher.

Short-term picture

source: Simple Digressions

However, in the short term there is quite a big divergence between gold and the index (which, generally, go in tandem). Gold has crossed above its strong resistance (the blue circle) while the index is still below a similar resistance level. It looks like a short-term correction or a stall in gold prices is in the making.