Monday, September 18, 2017

An Interesting Chart For Speculators In Gold

The chart below should be of some interest to speculators in gold:


Stockcharts have an interesting indicator - it discloses the trading volume attributed to certain price levels.

Let me take GLD as an example. The chart above shows that since July 2017 (when the current move in gold prices started) the highest trading volume was attributed to the price range of 121.7 - 122.7.

In other words, this level should be considered as strong support for GLD prices. It means also that any correction in GLD should end above this level.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

The Chinese Demand For Silver Is Very Strong

A few minutes ago the Shanghai Gold Exchange released its August report. The chart below is especially impressive:

source: Shanghai Gold Exchange

As the chart shows, the Chinese demand for silver was the highest this year. In August the Chinese investors withdrew as many as 270.3 tons of silver.

What is more, the demand was very strong despite rising prices of silver (in August the price of silver went up from 112.8 Yuan in the beginning of the month to 114.9 Yuan at the end).

Yes, I am really impressed...

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Note For The Subscribers To The 2017 Top Five Portfolio

Today (8.30 a.m. New York Time) I sent the fourth update to the 2017 Top Five Portfolio. If anybody did not get it, please, let me know (via e-mail or in the "Comments" section).

Sunday, September 10, 2017

US Equities - Are They Still In A Bull Market?

European investors investing in US equities are not happy. Since March 2017 their holdings are losing value measured in Euro:


While the S&P 500 (the lower panel of the chart) is still in its strong bull market, its equivalent measured in Euros is in its correction phase (the upper panel of the chart).

Note that a similar situation was an early indication of a bear market in the USA in 2007:


Well, I am not saying that we are at the beginning of a bear market in the USA (it will never happen, by the way) now but caution is advised...

Friday, September 8, 2017

What Is Wrong With Silver?

This bull market in silver is totally different from normal. It looks like investors are using higher prices of silver to liquidate their long positions in silver held in SLV:

Note that in August and September (up to date), SLV reported an outflow of 14.7 million ounces of silver, in total. It is really a high amount.

As a result, the current silver holdings at SLV are very close to the amount of silver held at the beginning of the current stage of a bull market in precious metals (two circles marked in red):

So the question is: what is wrong with silver?

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

Is Gold Breaking Above $1,300 Per Ounce?

Higher prices of gold and silver should attract investors but it is not always the case. Look at this chart:

Interestingly, this month, despite a 3.6% increase in silver prices, as many as 8.6 million ounces of silver were withdrawn from SLV vaults (and the 2017 cumulative flow is still negative - look at the lower panel of the chart).

However, JPM Morgan warehouse still reports silver inflows and since the beginning of 2017 as many as 33.7 million ounces of silver were added to the bank's vaults. It is a huge amount of silver. For example, Fresnillo plc, the largest world's primary silver producer delivers around 55 million ounces of silver in annual production.

On the other hand, in August two gold trusts, GLD and IAU, added big amounts of gold to their vaults (look at the row indicated by the red arrow on the chart below):

So, generally, August should be a good month for gold bugs. Particularly, this day (August 29) seems to be very interesting for precious metals investors - it looks like gold is breaking above its very strong resistance.

However, in my opinion, to get let reliable confirmation of this move we should wait for a few days...

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

IAU Or GLD? That Is A Question

I closely track gold flows reported by two big gold holders: IAU and GLD.

However, there is a big difference between these two investment vehicles. Look at the charts below:

Green bars depict monthly flows of gold and red lines depict cumulative gold flows.

It is easy to spot that this year investors participating in IAU were accumulating gold (the up sloping red line) while those using GLD were doing the opposite (and as of August 21 GLD reported a year-to-date outflow of gold).

Now the question is: which gold vehicle gives more reliable signals - IAU of GLD?