Precious Metals Market - Situation Is Very Interesting

First of all - I cannot find any optimism on precious metals market. Everybody is busy with guessing to what levels gold or silver are destined to fall. But I know one thing - when everybody is pessimistic about any asset class  the bottom is near or we are just at it.  The same is with gold and silver.
Anyway, this time the situation in PM market is a little bit different. But before more details are provided, please, look at the current situation at this market:

It looks as the whole sector is standing on the edge of a major disaster with silver breaking down below its strong suport.
Maybe, but not so fast. Previously, in 2011 - 2013, when a bear leg in PM market started, the first assets to breake down were stocks of Juniors and Producers. Gold and silver followed them one year later.
Today, the leading factor is silver - it broke down in September. Gold and Producers are at their supports while Juniors are behaving pretty well (see the chart at the bottom of this post).
I do not have the slightest idea where all that mess will end but definitely Juniors are being strongly accumulated. And due to the fact that the only players buying Juniors are proffesionals (with very deep pockets), this occurence confirms my belief that we are near the bottom in the PM sector.

Value Line Makes Me Very Cautious

Value Line Index is not confirming the top printed by S&P 500 and a few other indices. To find parallels, please, look at the charts below:


                                                                        2007

                                                                2014

This is another example of a deterioration in a technical picture of equity markets in the U.S.

U.S. Stock Market Is Seriously Degenerated

U.S. equities are marching up but there are many signs this market looks not so good. It does not mean this is a good opportunity to short it but it means it is a good opportunity to sell equities. Simply put, the risk is, in my  opinion, too high. A way too high. Just two charts:

I have explained the meaning of SKEW Index in this article. Looking at the chart above we can spot there is a very high risk of a rapid correction.

Well, another thing. Look at the chart below:

Despite Nasdaq100 and S&P500 marching up, we see that less stocks record new highs
But we have seen it before. The most surprising thing is that we see that more and more stocks record new lows while indices are standing at their long-term highs.
The market is driven by less new high issues and more new low issues. It does not look good.

Navios Maritime Acquisition Behaves Better Than Its Peers

Most recently I have written an article on Navios Maritime Acquisition. This is a shipping company having a quite big fleet of product tankers. These vessels are being used in the transportation of such oil related products as diesel oil, gasoline, jet fuel etc. In my opinion, the operators specializing in this segment of transportation business should benefit from growing U.S. exports of petroleum products.
Below you will find the charts showing the current technical situation of NNA's shares:

Gold And Silver Near Their Supports But PM Stocks Look Good

Well, it looks quite strange. Both silver and gold are approaching their supports (silver actually standing at its suport) but the behaviour of Juniors (PM explorers) indicates that the PM market does not look as bad as it appears. Look at the charts:

The blue area indicates that PM miners and explorers are not in a bear market anymore. Either they are not in a bull market. They are just in a consolidation phase with Juniors better than Miners (a yellow area indicates a bear market with Miners better than Juniors).

Nasdaq 100 Topping But We See More 52-week Lows Than 52-week Highs

Such a situation had happened only once: in March 2000 when we a historical top at Nasdaq100 was printed. Look at the chart:

What happened then?

We had experienced a very severe bear market in tech stocks.

Now, the history repeats:

Today, Nasdaq 100 is topping and....there are more 52-week lows than 52-week highs. It resembles March 2000, doesn't it?

European Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates But Gold Does Not Fall

The general rule is that gold is negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar. If dollar goes up, gold goes down. And vice versa.
On September 4, the European Central Bank cut interest rates very aggresively. After that the U.S. dollar strengthened by nearly 1% - quite a nice and quick jump. After one day it stays at these high levels.
Shortly after the rates were cut gold dipped around 1%. Till that moment it was as the general rule said. But then...well, it regained nearly everything it lost and at the end of September 5, gold is standing more or less at the level it was standing before the rates were cut. Quite embarrassing, eh? Look at the charts below:

I do not know what will happen next. Gold is not in its upward trend. But it looks like the players want to tell: "Hey, we do not trust currencies, we trust gold".