According to the COT data, since
May 29, 2018 the big speculators betting on a stronger dollar have increased
their bullish bets by 13.0 thousand contracts. Over that period the bears (big
speculators betting on a weaker dollar) cut their bets by 21.4 thousand
contracts. As a result, a net long position held by these traders went up by
34.4 thousand contracts but…the US dollar index has not changed at all (94.8 on
May 29 compared to 94.7 on September 28):
source: Simple Digressions
What is the takeaway for
speculators? Well, in my opinion, if something cannot go up pushed by hordes of
optimists, it is supposed to go down. Summarizing – I am bearish on the US
dollar in the medium term.
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