Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Looking For a Bottom In Precious Metals Shares

Firstly, the chart:


The chart above evidences four phases of the current precious metals cycle:

Phase 1 - both gold and miners are in an uptrend with miners going up more than gold - this was the strongest phase of the current cycle, which started in 2008

Phase 2 - again, gold and miners in an uptrend but miners loosing momentum (they appreciate in the same way as gold, not faster)

Phase 3 - gold is going up but miners are going down - miners are in a strong downtrend

Phase 4 - gold and miners are consolidating

Well, the most important thing is what is happening today:
  • both gold and miners are not going down - this a big plus for the goldbugs
  • there are trading days (as yesterday) when gold is a little bit down but miners are up - another plus
  • this a consolidation stage and the direction where the prices will go after that is a question mark.
Another plus for the goldbugs is that it seems that Big Money, since 26 March 2014, has started to accumulate miners shares (I will show the Big Money chart later).

Conclusion: the technical situation of the miners shares is presently much better than in 2012 and 2013 with the chances of breaking up from the ongoing consolidation stage slightly higher than the opposite.

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