Saturday, January 17, 2015

Gold Has Probably Printed Its Bottom

Most recently we have been observing some positive signs in the gold market. Please, look at the first chart:

I do not have the slightest idea where gold is going to but it seems, looking at the second chart, that gold has printed its bottom in the beginning of November 2014. The break-out below the support at around $1,200 was probably a false movement with many shorts caught in a bear trap.

What is more, GLD, the biggest world's ETF investing in gold bullion, recorded the weekly inflow of 742 thousand ounces of gold - it has been the biggest weekly inflow since November 2011 when gold was topping.

                                                            source: Simple Digressions and SPDR Gold Shares

And one more thing. Generally, gold falls when USD goes up and vice versa. But since the beginning of December 2014 both gold and usd have been appreciating. This occurrence confirms the power of the last up-leg in gold.

The US dollar index is approaching its resistance at around 66. Commercials, big market makers, currently have the highest net short position at greenback - this is a sign of a late bull market in that currency.

                          source: U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commision and Simple Digressions

Summary - in my opinion, the gold market has printed its cyclical bottom. Now, the problem is whether gold is starting a new bull leg or not. As you know, I am rather not trying to predict what the market is going to do - I leave this subject for showmen. But looking at the charts above, I guess the risk of investing in gold has fallen substantially.

No comments:

Post a Comment