Sunday, December 13, 2015

Three Charts Supporting A Thesis On An Incoming End Of The Bear Market In Gold

The downward trend in gold is no longer supported by traders. Yes, it looks that we are very close to the end of a medium-term bear market in precious metals.

In my opinion, these three charts below support my thesis.

The first chart shows net short positions (short positions less long positions) held by money managers  in gold futures (in other words: speculators). It is easy to notice that since 2013 these managers have been increasing their net short positions. Practically every time gold prices were printing new low, net short position was higher. However the last record low in the gold prices was not accompanied by higher net short position. Simply put, money managers are becoming less interested in betting against gold any more.

Another chart shows the current developments related to silver:

Similarly to gold, we may easily spot that all participants (not only money managers) taking part in silver speculation are currently less interested in this play - open interest does not support the last decrease in silver prices.

The last chart - US dollar:

As a rule, when the US dollar goes up then gold goes down. Well, in my opinion, this thesis is quite questionable but, well, let it be.

Looking at the chart above, we may spot that speculators are less interested in betting on the US dollar appreciation (declining open interest). Such a development supports gold.

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