Friday, August 4, 2017

USD, US Equities And Copper - Are They At Their Pivotal Points?

I am back at my desk. Today I would like to show a few charts with little or no comment.


The chart shows the US dollar sentiment index build on the data delivered by the COT report (Commitments of Traders report), as of August 1, 2017. As the chart shows, there is excessive pessimism among big speculators trading in US dollar index futures.

I guess everybody noticed that today the US dollar went up strongly. Those interested in my sentiment indices - please, go to my Seeking Alpha Marketplace service here.


The US stock market is unstoppable but...big speculators betting on higher prices of US equities are overly optimistic. The chart below shows a net position held by these traders in VIX futures. A huge net short position held by big speculators means that nearly each speculator bets on higher prices of US equities (lower VIX means higher stock prices).

What is more, the amount of those taking part in the game is the highest in history. Look at the total open interest in VIX futures:


Most recently copper prices broke above their strong resistance. This breakout was followed by masses participating in this movement. As a result, money managers (another class of big speculators) betting on higher prices of copper became overly optimistic about the red metal:

Similarly to VIX, the amount of players taking part in the game "Let us buy copper" is the highest in history:


  1. Ciao.... Hai migliorato il tuo sito ma c'è un inconveniente, ora il traduttore automatico non funziona più. Pazienza....ho il vocabolario hahaha

  2. Alberto,
    Really? I have no problem with translating your posts...

  3. Io invece si. Penso perchè la pagina non si apre subito ma si presenta prima la figura con l'ingranaggio. La stessa cosa succede con i PDF . Il traduttore automatico non funziona sui pdf.

  4. I really like you post,Thanks for your sharing.