Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Gold And Silver - I Am An Optimist

It happened at last. Now there is high or even extreme pessimism among big speculators trading precious metals futures on the COMEX. Look at these two charts:

                                   source: Simple Digressions

and this one

                                  source: Simple Digressions

The chart shows current (as of May 15, 2018) net positions held by money managers (big speculators) in gold and silver futures at the COMEX. Note that these traders are very pessimistic about gold (red circles on the upper panel of the chart) and silver (blue circles on the lower panel). 

For example, money managers trading silver futures hold a large, net short position. Interestingly, even at the end of the latest bear market in precious metals (December 2015) these speculators were less pessimistic. 

The same pattern is visible on the gold chart - yes, money managers are now less pessimistic than at the end of 2015 but their pessimism is comparable to that visible at the latest bottoms (red circles).

As a result, as a tough contrarian, I am once again optimistic about gold and silver in the short and long-term perspective.

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