Thursday, February 25, 2016

Bearish Developments In US Equities, Yet Again

US equities are going up but market internals are continuously sending warning signals.

Firstly, despite the fact that most recently S&P 500 has been going up, the volume is going down. It is not a support for bulls:

Note that during the last consolidation (yellow area), around 3.5 billion shares were changing hands daily. Now, when the index started marching up the volume is going down. In my opinion, such an occurrence does not support thesis that there is intensive buying pressure. Quite contrary, it looks like distribution.

Another chart:

This month (February) more shares have been changing hands during sessions when S&P 500 was falling. The month is not over yet but we are approaching the November 2015 reading, when this tendency was particularly visible. Well, such a development is not typical for bull markets. Quite contrary.

And the last chart, this time Nasdaq 100:

Since July 2015 the number of new lows over new highs has been increasing. It is a very strong pattern supporting a bearish thesis.

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