Since bottoming in January 2016, the whole sector, represented by GDX, went up 60.2%. It was a furious movement, a typical behaviour clearing oversold conditions. Some easing is expected now but in the long-term this move means really nothing. Nothing at all - please, look at the chart below:
As the chart shows, precious metals market is way behind the broad equity market, represented by the S&P 500 index (lower chart).
What is more, the upper chart proves that precious metals miners stocks (represented by XAU) are standing at the levels seen in 2001. Simply put, the last move, while quite impressive in the short-term, in the long-term is totally meaningless.
Are you saying the turn in GDX has just begun or it is too early to tell. Thanks for your articles.
ReplyDeleteHarry,
DeleteI think so. That is why I am long GDX, NUGT and a few gold miners. However I have not seen any serious correction yet. This correction should tell something more whether we have seen a trend reversal or just a big move up (I opt for a reversal - GDX is now above the last intermediate high, printed in October 2015).