Friday, February 2, 2018

US Dollar - Is It Close To The Bottom?

It looks like we are very close to the end of a bear market in the US dollar. Look at this chart:

source: Simple Digressions and the COT data

The grey bars represent the net positions held by big speculators trading US dollar index futures. Note that the current position held by these traders is SHORT.

However, despite the US dollar index being at its lowest level since January 2015, the net short position is not that large as it was at the end of November 2017 (the green arrow) when the previous bottom in the US dollar index was printed (the red arrow).

In other words, the speculators are not that pessimistic about the greenback as they were in November 2017. In my opinion, it is a common pattern visible during bottoming phases. Hence, expect the US dollar to consolidate or even go higher soon...

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