Sunday, February 11, 2018

US Stock Market - Expect A Short-Term Move Up

Last week VIX, a fear index, hit extreme readings of around 50 (the red circle on the chart below):


In the past such a reading was a clear indication of a short-term bottom in US equities. Simply put, the speculators trading VIX futures changed their attitude into total pessimism but...they were too fast. Look at another chart:

source: Simple Digressions and the COT data

Note that at the end of 2017 the speculators were holding a net SHORT position in VIX futures amounting to 97.2 thousand contracts (in that way strongly betting on higher prices of US equities). Now (February 6, 2018) they held a net LONG position of 85.8 thousand contracts (heavily betting on lower prices of US equities).
Well, in my opinion, the latest change in speculators' attitude was too big and too fast so...I expect a short-term move up soon.

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