US Dollar At A Pivotal Point

I am pretty sure that the gold bugs are totally depressed now. Since May 2018 gold and silver have been in their short-term downward trends and, despite extreme pessimism among North American speculators trading gold and silver futures, it looks like the precious metals market is doomed.

However, wait a moment and  look at this chart:

source: Stockcharts.com

Well, I hate classic technical analysis indicators as, for example, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) indicator (the lower panel of the chart) but sometimes these indicators work quite well (and, please, do not ask my why - I have no idea).  

In the case of MACD  - note that in the beginning of 2017 it delivered a SELL signal for the US dollar index (the red circle). Shortly after the US dollar started a long-term downward trend.

Interestingly, these days MACD is very close to generate a SELL signal once again (the blue circle). If that is the case, the precious metals market (very often going in the opposite direction to the US dollar) could start a new leg up that nobody expects. 

Summarizing - it looks like the US dollar is at its pivotal point now. From the technical point of view it should renew its upward trend very soon (probably this week). 

But if it does not, we may see a sudden and rapid deterioration and...a restart of an upward trend in precious metals.