Thursday, April 7, 2016

British Pound On Its Strong Long - Term Support

It is not a call on the British Pound but after a long way down, caused by the threat of incoming Brexit (at least some people say that) this currency seems to be at its very important long-term support level - please, look at the chart below:


This thesis is supported by the net position held by the so-called commercials, i.e. traders using futures contracts for hedging:

               source: COT Report and Simple Digressions

As the chart shows, currently commercials hold a large net long position in the British Pound, which should be perceived as a bullish pattern for this currency.

Another chart - this time it shows the sentiment among another group of players, big speculators:

                   source: COT Report and Simple Digressions

As the chart shows, speculators are very pessimistic on the British Pound, which is also a bullish indication for this currency. 

Note: I am not a fan of forex - it is a very volatile market in the short-term. What is more, forex is a highly leveraged play, too risky for me. 

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