Sunday, April 17, 2016

One Chart Supporting The Gold Bugs

In February I posted an article on the US dollar. At that time I put a thesis that the decreasing net long positions, held by big speculators, were an early indication of an incoming end of the bull run in the greenback. 

Now this chart looks like:

                              source: COT Report and Simple Digressions

It is clear that the net position, held by the big speculators, is much lower than in February and the US dollar has weakened since that time.

Please, note that the end of the dollar correction is usually at the time when big speculators hold net short position. Today the speculators are still holding net long positions so the dollar should go down.

And when the dollar goes down the gold goes up, generally. That is why this chart supports the bullish case in gold.

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