Sunday, April 10, 2016

Speculators Bet On Higher Prices Of U.S. Equities

After a strong rally in U.S. equities, big speculators bet on continuation of this rally:

                                        source: Simple Digressions and COT Report

Most recently speculators started to increase their net short positions in VIX futures (currently they are net short of 34,248 contracts - the green arrow)

As a rule, VIX, also called the fear index, goes down when equities prices go up, and vice versa. Because speculators are increasing their net short positions in VIX contracts, they think that VIX is going to fall, which means that they bet on equities prices to rise. 

However, most recently such behavior has been an indication of something opposite - equities prices were falling when speculators were holding net short positions.  

Coming next - Endeavour Silver analysis


  1. Delighted to see your last comment Will you be analysing Endeavour Mining or Endeavour Silver ?

    1. Hmmm....well...Endeavour Silver, in fact.

      Yes, I know. I should go to the eye doctor. Sorry, give me a few days more. Endeavour Mining is also a very interesting company...