Saturday, July 9, 2016

GLD Goes Up After The Accumulation Period

A few days ago gold prices broke up from a 3 month trading range. This break-up was preceded by a build-up in gold stocks at GLD vaults:

How to read this chart?

  • It is easy to spot that between December 2015 and March 2016 both GLD prices (and gold itself) and gold stocks were rising. 
  • Then, between March and middle June, GLD prices got stuck between $115 and $124. 
  • However, despite GLD prices going nowhere, more and more gold ounces were added to its vaults (red, rising line). 

It is a common technical pattern, called "accumulation period". As a result of this accumulation, in late June gold prices went strongly up. 

What is more, the pattern drawn between March and June was quite similar to the pattern drawn between 2008 and 2009 (when the second leg-up in gold prices was starting):

The yellow area shows the trading range - for seven months GLD prices were trading between $85 and $98. During this stagnation as many as 2 million ounces were added to the GLD vaults. Then, in middle September 2009, GLD prices went strongly up.

Summarizing - both charts look similar but there is one basic difference. The 2009 accumulation resulted in adding 2 million ounces to the GLD vaults. This year as many as 3.5 million ounces were added to these vaults. 

According to the theory: the stronger accumulation the stronger price movement.

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