Thursday, July 21, 2016

Newmont Mining Is A Classic Example Of Market Inefficiency

Newmont Mining (NEM) is one of the largest world gold producers. Yesterday the company announced its 2Q 2016 results so it is the right time to show Newmont's performance in the long-term. 

Below I have plotted the graph showing cash flows from operations (excluding working capital issues), calculated on a per quarter basis. 

Next to these cash flows I have plotted Newmont's share prices, as of the end of each quarter: 

As a rule, share prices should follow the company's fundamentals. For example, if in subsequent quarters a company delivers lower cash flows share prices should be going down. And vice-versa.

However, it may be easily noticed that between the second quarter of 2014 and the third quarter of 2015 (violet arrow) Newmont has been steadily increasing its cash flows from operations. 

To remind my readers, at that time the entire precious metals sector was in the middle of a severe bear market - PM stocks were going down and Newmont was no exception.

And during that hard time Newmont, very quietly, was piling its cash (mainly due to radical cost cuts). 

Does anybody think that financial markets are effective?

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